ARLINGTON, Va. — Three hours into what officials described as a routine Wednesday targeting meeting, senior Pentagon planners confirmed that the United States has run out of countries that have oil and are not already being invaded, blockaded or run by the United States, leaving the world's most expensive military unsure who to invade next.
"We went down the list. We went down it twice," said Lt. Gen. Bradley Vantz, Deputy Under Secretary of War for Strategic Opportunities, standing beside a laminated chart of the world's proven oil reserves on which every row had been crossed out in grease pencil. "Number one, Venezuela: we have that. Number three, Iran: we're blockading that. Number two is Saudi Arabia, and we sell them the planes. You can't invade a customer. That's just retail."
The list is short because it was always short. Venezuela, which sits on roughly 303 billion barrels, the largest proven reserves on Earth, has been under what officials call "American management" since the January raid that removed Nicolás Maduro, after which the President announced that the country's interim authorities would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels. Iran, third at about 209 billion barrels, has been under a U.S. naval blockade since July. No tankers have loaded at its main export terminal on Kharg Island since late summer, which planners described as both "a sign the strategy is working" and "a sign there is nothing left to take."
That left what one Joint Staff memo called "the awkward tier." Canada, fourth, is an ally whose reserves are mostly oil sands, which planners confirmed are "technically oil, the way a casserole is technically soup." Iraq, fifth, was ruled out on the grounds that "we did that. Ask anyone. Ask the T-shirt." The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait both host American bases, and Pentagon lawyers advised that the military cannot invade a country from inside a building it is already in. Russia, described in the memo as "having oil, but also having the other thing," was moved to a folder labeled LATER, NEVER.
Planners briefly considered Greenland, but the file was transferred to Immigration and Customs Enforcement after officials learned that the island's government halted new oil exploration in 2021 and that the territory consists mostly of ice, which is ICE's jurisdiction. "They're handling the glacier," Vantz said. "We wish them well. It's a big glacier."
Strategic Matchmaker™
Swipe through the world's proven oil reserves the way planners do: hopefully. Tap Invade if it feels right. The Joint Staff will tell you why it isn't.
Reserve figures are rounded proven reserves in billions of barrels and vary by source. Each profile view burns 41,000 gallons of jet fuel, because the Joint Staff reviews every profile in person.
The shortage is complicated by the fact that the Pentagon is the largest fuel consumer in the federal government, burning about 2.2 billion gallons of jet fuel a year, much of it, planners acknowledged, flying to places that have oil. According to War Department records, the average price the department paid per barrel rose from $154.14 last October to $195.72 in April, an increase officials attributed to "the war," then, after a pause, to "the other war."
"It's a closed loop," said Dr. Marisol Tenkiller, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Obvious Studies. "They need oil to invade, and they invade to get oil. It's the world's first perpetual motion machine that runs out of gas."
None of this has slowed the budget. The department has asked Congress for $1.5 trillion for next year, nearly 50% more than this year. Asked what that money would buy if there is nothing left to invade, Vantz said the department was "exploring options," then clarified that he meant "exploring" in the drilling sense.
A slide deck obtained by HuckFinn lists the options under review. They include invading the ocean floor ("technically nobody's"), invading the past ("1953 went great") and invading a country first and checking for oil afterward, which the deck calls "the Afghanistan model," noting that a 2010 Pentagon memo had called that country "the Saudi Arabia of lithium" and that "lithium is basically oil for phones, so it counts."
The option that drew the most interest in the room, sources said, was the country eighth on the list: the United States, which holds about 84 billion barrels, mostly in Texas, North Dakota and Alaska. "It checks every box," Vantz said. "It has oil. It's close. We already have bases there. And we know for a fact it doesn't have a functioning Congress to authorize anything." He said a pretext was being drafted.
The Pretext Generator
Pick a target. Pull the lever. Our intelligence community will find a reason, a threat and a confidence level of High, in that order.
Every pretext is rated Confidence: High before the reels stop. Congress has 60 days to respond to each one, which the department counts as permission.
The public appears unsure as well. A New York Times/Siena poll found that 66% of Americans disapprove of the war in Iran, and a YouGov survey found that 72% of Americans still call it the Department of Defense. Vantz said a Texas operation could fix both numbers at once. "If we invade Texas, it's defense again," he said. "Everybody wins."
In Midland, reaction was mixed. "We've been asking to be liberated for years," said Dale Pruett, 51, a roughneck. "Not by these guys. But still."
At press time, the Pentagon confirmed it had located a country with significant oil reserves, no American bases and no means of resistance, and had sent three carrier strike groups toward it before an aide noticed that the circle on the map was a coffee ring. The carriers are expected to arrive Tuesday.
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