Wall Street Celebrates Trump's Historic 'Least Best' Stock Performance in 20 Years

Analysts hail weakest first-year presidential market gains since 2005 as 'unprecedented achievement in managed expectations'; investors praise administration for only almost causing a bear market

By CHAD WELLINGTON III | HuckFinn Markets Desk | January 26, 2026

Wall Street erupted in celebration this week after data confirmed that President Trump's first year back in office produced the weakest stock market performance of any new presidential term since George W. Bush's second term in 2005—a milestone analysts are calling "a triumph of expectation management" and "proof that America is back to being number one at being the least first."

The S&P 500 rose 13.3% from Trump's January 2025 inauguration through January 20, 2026, according to CFRA Research. While the figure would constitute "healthy gains by any standard," as the research firm noted, it represented a sharp decline from the 24.1% gains during Trump's first term—a differential that market observers have rebranded as the "Relative Disappointment Index," or RDI.

"We're witnessing historic underperformance, and I think it's important to celebrate that," said Brent Hartwick, chief expectations officer at Goldman Sachs Narrative Management Division. "When you think about all the ways this year could have gone wrong—and almost did—a mere 13.3% gain is actually a stunning achievement in avoided catastrophe."

Indeed, the year was marked by what economists are now calling "policy whiplash"—a phenomenon in which market participants experienced such rapid oscillations in tariff announcements, diplomatic crises, and presidential social media posts that many developed what one neurologist described as "financial seasickness."

The administration's approach to trade policy alone sent the VIX—Wall Street's so-called "fear gauge"—above 50 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, a level typically associated with "sustained existential dread" according to the index's official documentation.

The Peanuts Standard

President Trump addressed the market's performance on Wednesday, dismissing a recent dip caused by uncertainty over Greenland and new tariff threats as "peanuts" and predicting the market would "soon be doubled."

The comment has since spawned a new financial metric—the "Peanut Standard"—by which analysts measure market declines.

"What's remarkable is that the President has created an entirely new framework for understanding market volatility," said Dr. Helena Voss, professor of behavioral economics at the University of Chicago. "Previously, we used standard deviations. Now we use legumes. I think that's actually an improvement because more people understand peanuts than standard deviations."

Hours after calling market losses "peanuts," Trump backed off his most severe tariff threats, sending stocks sharply higher and cementing what traders are calling the "Peanut Pivot"—a reliable pattern in which presidential dismissals of market concerns precede policy reversals.

International Humiliation Reframed as Strategic Retreat

Perhaps most striking was the fact that international stocks outperformed U.S. markets in 2025 for the first time in years—a development that analysts at Morgan Stanley have recast as "strategic domestic underperformance designed to lull foreign competitors into complacency."

"When you're number one for so long, sometimes you have to let others win to keep them interested in the game," explained Hartwick. "It's like a parent letting their child win at Monopoly. America is being a good global parent."

The explanation has been well-received by investors, 73% of whom told a recent HuckFinn Markets poll that they "completely understand" why being beaten by international markets is actually "a sign of strength."

"Let The Economy Run Hot"

Looking ahead, analysts expect the administration to pursue aggressive pro-growth policies through the 2026 midterm elections—a strategy one strategist described as "letting the economy run hot enough to distract from everything else running hot."

"The front-end loading of stimulus from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' is a big reason why the stock market did well despite everything," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. "This is also why many investors are thinking the president wants to 'let the economy run hot' through the midterms. Which is great until you remember what happens to things that run hot."

Tim Thomas, chief investment officer at Badgley Phelps Wealth Management, said he's adjusted some client portfolios to be more "defensive"—a term that, in 2026, apparently means "having a plan for when the president tweets about annexing additional territories."

"You need to have some kind of hedge in place," Thomas explained. "But the key is staying focused on the long term and on company fundamentals. In the end, those will be the drivers of returns. Unless fundamentals also become peanuts. Then I don't know what to tell you."

The Discipline Imperative

As the market enters its third consecutive year of strong overall gains—albeit with the weakest presidential first-year performance in two decades—financial advisors are urging clients to maintain investment discipline and resist the urge to make emotional decisions based on policy uncertainty.

"When you hear the word 'Greenland' and immediately sell your entire portfolio, that's not discipline," said Hagerty. "When you hear 'tariffs' and buy gold bars in a panic, that's not discipline either. True discipline is looking at your bleeding portfolio and saying, 'This is fine.'"

Meanwhile, safe-haven assets like gold and silver continue to hit record highs, a development that experts say reflects either "prudent hedging against uncertainty" or "collective societal acknowledgment that shiny rocks feel more reliable than institutions right now."

The dollar, for its part, continues to struggle—a trend that the Treasury Department has characterized as "strategic currency humility."